Free tool

Did your marketing actually work?

A before/after credits your marketing for growth that would have happened anyway. Subtract what your baseline did on its own, and you see the lift you actually caused. Enter three numbers.

Your numbers

Metric before — your average per period before the change

Metric after — your average per period after

What your baseline did anyway — a comparable channel/region you didn't touch, or normal seasonal growth. Use 0 if flat; can be negative.

Typical period-to-period swing Optional
— how much this metric normally bounces on its own. Leave blank to skip the noise check.

The real lift

+0%

True incremental lift (counterfactual subtracted)

+0%

Naive before/after lift

What baseline would've done

True incremental (units)

Share of your lift that's real

—

Enter your numbers to see the real incremental effect.

A guessed baseline is a back-of-napkin. A pre-registered control is proof.

This tool subtracts one baseline you typed in. The Hiilite platform pre-registers the control set at launch — the channels, regions, and segments you're not touching — and computes the incremental effect automatically with CausalImpact (Bayesian structural time series), reporting posterior credible intervals instead of a single flattering number. That is the difference between a guess and proof.

Book a discovery call See the framework

How the math works: true incremental lift = (what happened) − (what your baseline would have delivered anyway), where the counterfactual = before × (1 + baseline%). A before/after assumes nothing else was moving — it almost always was. Not sure which method you can use? See choose a measurement method, or the research in Growth Mapping.